North Korea in 2009

As President Elect Obama settles his family into Washington, DC, and his children begin at Sidwell Friends School, we have an update on North Korea from John McCreary's "NightWatch." This report is dated 2 January and starts out by talking about the Dear Leader, who has been reported to be in bad health.

Kim Chong-Il inspected a tank division of the Korean People's Army, state media said on 3 January (Saturday),* making that Kim’s first public appearance of the new year. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) did not say exactly when Kim's visit took place, but it said "service persons enthusiastically welcomed him and offered him the warmest New Year greetings".

The annual New Year’s Day editorial was rather bland and uninteresting. It called for an uprising against the South Korean government, but was conciliatory to others, with the US being the primary target. "The independent foreign policy of our republic to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and defend the peace and security of Northeast Asia is demonstrating its vitality," it said. "We will develop relations with the countries that are friendly to us."

This is the equivalent of an invitation to start all over with a new US administration. It signifies the North is open to accept new incentives and promises of aid and is willing to renegotiate its obligations. In short, the de-nuclear program is up for sale again, meaning the Yongbyon complex, not the nuclear weapons program.

So, it seems that we are going back to square one for negotiations with North Korea on nuclear weapons.

Richard Halloran, writing in The Washington Times 0n 21 December 2008 suggests we ignore North Korea. One might argue we have tried that in the past, to no great effect. His punch line is:

He [President-elect Obama] could tell the North Koreans quietly that they appear not to be interested in negotiating in good faith. If they change their minds, let him know. Meantime, a threat to U.S. forces, allies and friends would be met with a forceful response in time, place and method of American choosing.

The Far East is Mr Halloran's beat. He is a former New York Times reporter based in Hawaii and working as a freelance writer. He has several books on the Far East to his credit.

The economic situation in North Korea is not seen as getting better in 2009. Back to Mr McCreary

...the statement primarily focused on economic recovery, even over support to the military and ideology, plus it stressed the need to support Kim Chong-il. The tone and topics suggest 2009 will be another period of marching with hardship, as were the great flood and famine years of 1995 and 1996. That means more internal deprivation.

In the mean time North Korea is getting hard currency by pushing bogus $100 bills, exported by fake refugees, who go out and then return and go back out again, or so we are told.

This is a difficult problem and contributes to instability in the Far East. However, our ongoing economic crisis could reduce this in importance. The danger is that North Korea could then work to raise their issues up in the stack of problems the new Administration faces. That would not be good.

* That time zone thing and the international dateline. Pearl Harbor happened on 7 December in Pearl Harbor, but it was 8 December already in Manila when the bombs began to fall.

Regards -- Cliff