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Monday, June 4, 2012

Rapid Sea Change?

I believe this analysis is a bit premature, but it presents an interesting look at the current situation, for both President Obama and Governor Romney.

Writing in Human Events, Mr John Hayward talks about "Romney, Obama, and the 2012 preference cascade".
What I believe we are seeing here is the beginning of a “preference cascade,” a term made popular by Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit fame.   It’s a fascinating concept, applied originally to the process by which oppressive governments fall. 

A large population can be dominated by a small group only by persuading all dissenters that they stand alone.   Most of their fellow citizens are portrayed as loyal to the regime, and everyone around the dissident is a potential informer.   A huge dissident population can therefore be suppressed, by making them believe they’re all lonely voices in the wilderness… until the day they begin realizing they are not alone, and most people don’t support the regime.   The process by which dissent becomes seen as commonplace, and eventually overwhelming, is the preference cascade.
So, we ask ourselves, are individual Democrats coming to believe they are not alone in thinking President Obama is not the Hope and Change they thought he was?  Are individual Republicans coming to think that maybe they weren't the only ones who liked Governor Romney as a choice?  Sometimes a rapid sea change was building for a long time.

Hat tip to the Instapundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

1 comment:

Craig H said...

The cascade cannot yet possibly be happening, if those of more conservative persuasion are still confused about Mitt being part of the regime.

The regime is the Republicrat (or was that Demican?) two-headed hydra, and their Federal suppression machine that both parties feed at their every opportunity. The alternative to absent hope and no change at all is not either of the major political party nominees, and can never possibly be.

The sooner you and others on the knee-jerk democrat side figure that out, the sooner a cascade can begin.