The EU

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Sunday, July 22, 2012

"Fiscal Cliff"

No, that is not self-advertising.  This is about Sequestration.

The STRIB had this item yesterday, but it was originally in The Washington Post on the 17th of July.  This is analysis based upon the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who told Congress, "Do no harm".  The lede and a couple of more paragraphs:
The main threat to the economy is shifting from what others may do to us to what we are doing to ourselves.

For much of the year, economists worried about the impact of the slowdown in Europe on the U.S. economy.  Now, analysts say anxiety about the impact of the fast-approaching fiscal cliff — the series of federal spending cuts and tax hikes set to take effect at the beginning of 2013 if Congress and the Obama administration do not act — is displacing Europe as the primary threat to the nation’s sputtering economy.

Morgan Stanley said this week that concerns about the fiscal cliff are reaching new heights across a wide range of industries.  It is already seeing reductions in business orders and hiring, among other areas.

“While our analysts are somewhat less worried about the impact of European bank strains,” a Morgan Stanley report said Monday, “the negative impact of fiscal cliff uncertainty is becoming more widespread.”

The potential economic impact could smother the flickering recovery and further stifle job creation, analysts warn.

A new report commissioned by the aerospace industry says federal budget cuts set to take effect in January could cost the country’s economy more than 2 million jobs and raise the national unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points over the next year.
The line that comes to mind is:
If you can remain calm while those about you run around in panic, you just don't know how serious the situation is.
Sequestration begins 3 January 2013, unless you are a business, in which case you may have to give notification of layoffs 60 to 90 days in advance.  Sixty days would be about 3 November of this year and ninety would be in October.

Regards  —  Cliff

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