Sunday, January 31, 2016

Bernie Sanders Odds

For John, BLUFSenator Sanders is still a long shot.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

Writing for his blog, FIVE THIRTY EIGHT, Mr Nate Silver gives us "What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa".

The lede plus one:

If you’re dreaming of Bernie Sanders beating Hillary Clinton, you know how the movie begins (he wins Iowa on Monday1), how it ends (he accepts the nomination to a Simon & Garfunkel tune), and one of the major plot lines (black, Hispanic and moderate Democrats, who for now prefer Clinton to Sanders, begin to #feelthebern).  You also know who the hapless villain is:  Democratic party elites (aka “the establishment”), who will be fighting Sanders every step of the way.

Otherwise, the details are fuzzy. We’re not quite sure how Sanders pulls off this Wes Anderson caper.

At the link is a chart of "white liberal" Democrat voters, who are Senator Sanders' base.  In order, the first five are Vermont (59%), New Hampshire (54%), Iowa (50%), Massachusetts (50%) and Oregon (48%).  Louisiana is bottom, with 15%.

In case you didn't realize it, Vermont was, at the 2010 Census, 95.3% Caucasian.  One percent Black. And 1.3% Asian.  But it does have a lot of refugees from New York City.

Here is the final paragraph:

None of that would necessarily matter. Iowa should be one of the half-dozen or so most favorable states in the country for Sanders; New Hampshire is one of the few that ranks even higher for him.  If Sanders can’t win Iowa, he probably won’t be winning other relatively favorable states like Wisconsin, much less more challenging ones like Ohio and Florida.  His ceiling wouldn’t be high enough to win the nomination unless something major changes.
Regards  —  Cliff

  Mr Silver's footnote—"Such as a federal indictment of [Ms] Clinton."

No comments: