For John, BLUF: This is a what if essay, looking at the case where Ms Clinton wins in 2016. Nothing to see here; just move along.
From the Blog Site of Mr Brad Templeton, who is apparently a Canadian, we have a look into the future.
Social media are jam packed with analysis of the rise of Donald Trump these days. Most of us in what we would view as the intellectual and educated community are asking not just why Trump is a success, but as Trevor Noah asked, “Why is this even a contest?” Clinton may not be, as the Democrats claim, the most qualified person ever to run, but she’s certainly decently qualified, and Trump is almost the only candidate with no public service experience ever to run. Even his supporters readily agree he’s a bit of a buffoon, that he says tons of crazy things, and probably doesn’t believe most of the things he says. (The fact that he doesn’t actually mean many of the crazy things has become the primary justification of those who support him.)I would challenge Mr Templeton's assertion that Ms Clint is "certainly decently qualified". She is not. But, that isn't the point of this short essay. Here is the point:
But it is a contest, and while it looks like Clinton will probably win it is also disturbing to me to note that in polls broken down by race and sex, Trump is actually ahead of Clinton by a decent margin among my two groups — whites and males. (Polls have been varying a lot in the weeks of the conventions.) Whites and males have their biases and privileges, of course, but they are very large and diverse groups, and again, to the coastal intellectual view, this shouldn’t even be a contest. (It’s also my view as a foreigner of libertarian leanings and no association with either party.)
But what if he were smarter? What if a more calculating candidate, now that this new body of voters has been discovered, knew better what to say and what not to say? What if there were a candidate who applied advanced political techniques, testing and polling new positions, rather than just throwing pasta at the wall to see what sticks and depending on an imagined invulnerability to get away with it?There were the Tea Parties and no one listened. Now there is Mr Trump and Senator Sanders and likely no one is listening. So, what does 2020 or 2024 have to offer if the disenchanted are not "brought back into the fold", if they still feel disenchanted?
If Clinton continues her lead and wins, then this candidate is coming in 2024 or even 2020. If the trend described above that works against the incumbent party continues, that candidate will have a head start against Clinton or her Democratic successor and a strong chance at victory.
Hat tip to the InstaPundit.
Regards — Cliff