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Wednesday, August 24, 2016

The Trump Realignment

For John, BLUFIt is possible we are experiencing a major transformations in the political parties, of which Mr Trump is a symptom, rather than a cause.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

By Mr Thomas B. Edsall, of The Old Gray Lady, back on 11 August of this year.

From the article:

Trump is competitive among the less affluent and those without college degrees, among whom he is behind by 3 and 4 points respectively.  But Clinton is crushing him among college graduates (57-34) and among those making $50,000 or more (55-37).

The current education and income patterns reflect a reversal of the way Bill Clinton first won the presidency in 1992. Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush by double-digit margins among voters making less than $50,000, but lost among voters making $100,000 or more, 54-38.  In 1992, Clinton won by similarly large margins among those with high school degrees or less, while losing college graduates 41-39.

The larger conclusion from the data is that the Trump campaign — both through the support Trump generates among working-class whites and the opposition he generates among better educated, more affluent voters — has accelerated the ongoing transformation of the Democratic Party.  Once a class-based coalition, the party has become an alliance between upscale well-educated whites and, importantly, ethnic and racial minorities, many of them low income.

I would suggest that because of unhappiness on the part of less well off voters (and thus perhaps less educated) we are seeing shifts in allegiances.  First the Tea Parties, and this year Mr Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders, and then 2020.  If there isn't change this year, will these voters and potential voters just give up and go away for 2020, or will they come back even stronger?

The other question is if racial minorities might decide that Mr Trump is correct when he asks "What do you have to lose"?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

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