For John, BLUF: If you have the wrong data it is easy to draw the wrong conclusions. Nothing to see here; just move along.
From The Old Gray Lady, by Columnist Thomas B. Edsall, 29 March 2018.
Here is the lede plus one:
Crucial disputes over Democratic strategy concerning economic distribution, race and immigration have in large part been based on Election Day exit polls that now appear to have been inaccurate in key ways.Here is a key paragraph:
According to subsequent studies, those polls substantially underestimated the number of Democratic white working-class voters — many of whom are culturally conservative — and overestimated the white college-educated Democratic electorate, a far more culturally liberal constituency.♠
In sum, Pew’s more precise survey methods reveal that when Democrats are broken down by education, race and ethnicity, the white working class is the largest bloc of Democratic voters and substantially larger than the bloc of white college-educated Democratic voters.I think this goes with a post yesterday, "Lack of Understanding", about an article "'Roseanne' Star Sandra Bernhard: Women Who Support Trump Unable To Think For Themselves". Yes, the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party wants to believe that they are the future and the future is college graduates and minorities, but in the here and now it just isn't so. And, there is no promise that minorities will always vote Democrat. As Democrats become more progressive and Hispanics crowd out Blacks, the more likely it is that the church-going portion of Blacks might slide toward Conservative candidates Stranger things have happened.
Then there is the whole relative decline in males going to college, vs females.
Hat tip to the InstaPundit.
Regards — Cliff
♠ I am sure Mr Edsall does not realize that "White" is a term that should be replaced by 'Caucasian". Just because Blacks wish to be called Black does not mean that all Caucasians wish to be called "White". Time to stop offending people.