For John, BLUF: If we are going in regarding ISIL we need to plan on going all in. Nothing to see here; just move along.
As we recall, our Senior Senator, Ms E Warren, has spoken out regarding ISIL, saying
"We need to be working now, full-speed ahead, with other countries, to destroy ISIS. That should be our No. 1 priority," she said in a wide-ranging interview promoting her latest book, A Fighting Chance.♠♥She also said in that Interview:
"We can't get pulled into another war in the Middle East," she said. "We need to be working with others to close ISIS down."This attempt to deal with the problem of ISIL, but without putting boots on the ground, brings this graphic to mind:
I would like to be clear that the end game needs to be lead by the Arab nations in the region. The thrust of ISIL is that those Arab nations are corrupt and do not follow the ways of Islam. Those nations are the ones threatened. And, it is their youth who are providing a big chunk of the young ISIL recruits. But, it is unlikely we will be able to stand off shore, sending in air attacks. It reminds me of this Comedian Jonathan Winters line:
I’d like to be going with you, but they need me here. I shall however be observing from some 5000 yards away through heavy lenses.Here is the thing. If we fail to quickly and totally squeeze out ISIL inside a few days, they will take umbrage at our actions against them and plot a way to get back at us, here in the homeland.
Remember the Doolittle Raid of 18 April 1942? A direct response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Little of physical damage, but a big psychological boost to the home crowd and a stick in the eye to the Japanese.♦ That is the kind of thing that might happen, albeit more low tech.
Regards — Cliff
♠ From The Hill, 3 September 2014.
♥ A Fighting Chance came out 22 April of this year. Who thinks she isn't preparing for a run at the Democrat Party Presidential nomination in 2016? And, it is a free ride, since her Senate term isn't up until 2019 (election in 2018).
♦ The response of the Japanese Army, the Zhejiang-Jiangxi Campaign, is said to have killed upwards of 250,000 Chinese civilians.
1 comment:
As I have said before, disrupting the supply/communication lines between the major and minor cities using drones as much as possible and thereby forcing a local leader to the forefront who must contend with discord among the unfed troops and deal with the rancor among the civilians as well is our only viable plan at this point. ISIS is still in the process of becoming a cohesive entity. The regions they operate within are hostile environmentally and barren agriculturally. Young men are not usually known for wanting to do the pragmatic things like working the fields.
We need to worry less about the safety of the civilians in the region, and more about harming these teenage hoodlums and keeping them from coming to power. For now we need to consider the civilians in the area as powerless and unable to rise against the violent youth who have risen to power. These youngsters will not be schooled in the art of war, just in the art of being bullies.
President Obama and the leaders in congress need to consult the law enforcement experts in gang violence and glean what they can about how to effectively set up an environment where rival intra-gang violence takes out our enemy. Envision your enemy as a 20 something young single male. He is an empowered pride machine with no notion about his vulnerability to misery nor his death.
I should remind you that the penalty for theft in this country is to remove the right hand on the first offense and the second on the second offense with death on the third? The suicide bomber does not fear for himself, because he will be dead…his sacrifice would be a much harder sell if he knew he would survive minus a limb or the use of his legs, dependent upon his "loving" family to take care of him for the rest of his life. Not sure, but I believe acts of suicide that are not a part of any jihad are forbidden by the Koran. Thus after he has lost an appendage if he were true to his Muslim faith he would never be able to end his own misery. Long live the fifth column always existent on the hand to the left: the side still standing on two feet.
How do you take a third of a cache of bullets, bury them six feet deep in the sand so they cannot every kill anyone, and then deposit 10K USD into an innocent, but enemy, terrorist's bank account anonymously? I don't know but I suspect the CIA knows and could make it happen. So now I ask the CIA what will happen when this unfortunate man tries to explain the USA's charity to him to his muslim leader? Damned if he does acknowledge the wrong and damned if he doesn't. Is 10K USD cheaper than the price of a drone? Is there any accountant in the justice department who can make the electronic transfer after the SEAL like individuals have made the withdrawal? How many young men under the unfortunate have to watch their innocent leader fall before they become disenchanted with the leader in charge? I'm banking on 50 or less for a possible war won with an insurgent controlled cost of 500,000 USD. My last advice is do not hit the same bank account twice, and take 20,000 bullets, at a time if you are able, thus it will look like a sale of 50 cents per bullet to some unknown benefactor--Mother Earth.
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