Friday, October 24, 2014

Potential Ebola Growth Cureves


For John, BLUFContainment of Ebola is important or it could grow out of control.  Nothing to see here; just move along.



Here is a set of charts by The International New York Times on the spread of Ebola.  Below is an interesting section of the article.  The accompanying graphic is at the link.  Nice example of exponential growth in the right hand chart.
How many people could become infected?
The W.H.O. reported on Oct. 14 that the number of new Ebola cases could reach 10,000 per week by December.  The C.D.C. published a report in September that outlined a worst-case situation, in which the total number of cases could reach 1.4 million in four months.  The C.D.C.’s model is based on data from August and includes cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone, but not Guinea (where counts have been unreliable).  It also projects further into the future and adds ranges to account for underreporting of cases.
Ebola can be stopped.  Nigeria has been declared Ebola-free by the World Health Organization, in large measure thanks to a heroic physician, Ms Stella Ameyo Adadevoh, RIP.

Regards  —  Cliff

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