For John, BLUF: You will likely live to see this new China. You will live in interesting times. Nothing to see here; just move along.
China's economic growth is slowing, from around 7.7% per annum, to 5.5% from 2015 to 2019, and then down to 3.9% on out toward 2025. One key question is if this slowing of economic growth will allow the economy to accommodate the population as it continues to grow, before leveling off around 2030 AD, and if it will allow for the absorption of those coming in from the farms.
In the long run China will again be the dominant economy in the world, at least as projected by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Things are getting back to the way they were 500 or more years ago. At the end of the Ming Dynasty (1644 AD) China accounted for about 55% of the global economy.
Would an economically stronger China be a better China, or would it want to be in charge of everything, be the world's policeman? On the other hand, if the Chinese economy were to go into some degree of collapse would it be better. My guess is not better, since a nation with economic problems might look to the outside for solutions.
At any rate, what sparked this is an article in The Wall Street Journal, which anticipated a Conference Board estimate showing a slowing growth rate for the Chinese economy.
Regards — Cliff
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