My belief in the inevitability of an Obama win in 2012 just softened a little bit.
The reason is inflation in China.
The key to forecasting is not in detecting the trend line, but in anticipating the knee in the curve.
Hat tip to the Instapundit.
Regards — Cliff
1 comment:
The dire consequences of economic indicators across the board are hard to argue. Chinese inflation is one troubling observation. Our own debt burden is another. Global banking insolvency, i.e. worthless loans still on the books, is yet another. The trick is, exactly as you put it, guessing the timing, and certainly any incumbent president is going to take a hit for simply being in the hotseat at the wrong time. (Perhaps the converse of being the lucky one to have been there for the Bin Laden kill jackpot).
Regarding the economy when the time comes, folks are likely going to feel much as Mississippi valley folks have recently felt about the rising floodwaters--nowhere to run or hide, and everything they once owned underwater. The problem is in guessing whether it'll be hyperinflation, (in which case, owing money will be no problem at all to repay in inflated currency), or stagnation and deflation, (in which case, owing money will be the millstone that drowns most).
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