The Saudi Bomb

From Night Watch this morning:

Saudi Arabia: Former Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Turki al-Faisal, told a security forum in Riyadh on 5 December that Saudi Arabia may consider acquiring nuclear weapons to match regional rivals Israel and Iran.  "Our efforts and those of the world have failed to convince Israel to abandon its weapons of mass destruction, as well as Iran... therefore it is our duty towards our nation and people to consider all possible options, including the possession of these weapons."

Comment: The conventional wisdom from a few years ago was that proof of an Iranian nuclear weapons program might prompt Jordan, Turkey, Egypt or Saudi Arabia to develop a nuclear weapons program so that there would be an Arab riposte to the Persians.

The implication of Turki's comment is that Saudi Arabia has capabilities, or access to capabilities, that are not generally known.  Proof that Iran has a nuclear weapon not only has implications for Israel's security, but also for the Sunni states of the Middle East.

So, before Iran will have enough nuclear weapons to have a military capability the Saudis might have a "primitive" nuclear retaliatory capability—or a commitment from the US, or some other nuclear state, of a "nuclear umbrella" against a nuclear Iran.

A question for us is, do we care about nuclear proliferation enough to offer guarantees to Saudi Arabia and other Sunni States?

Regards  —  Cliff