Egypt in Serious Long-Term Danger

For John, BLUF:  Without help, Egypt could fold like a house of cards, with Salafists (extremists) coming to power and threatening Middle East peace.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

Andrew S Natsios (Local Boy Makes Good) has an Opinion Piece in US News and World Report, that says under the current circumstances, and with the current governing team President Morsi is able to assemble, Egypt could well devolve into serious economic, and thus social, problems.  Here is the last paragraph of the piece:

The economic crisis facing Egypt would challenge even the most skilled policymakers and political leaders, but the potential exodus of skilled Egyptian technocrats increases the risk that the [Muslim] Brotherhood will fail, and may fail miserably to address the economic crisis.  In which case its popular base of support will erode as food prices rise and the poor cannot feed themselves.  Then out of desperation the Brotherhood will most likely turn to the Salafist party, which represents the most extreme Islamists, for help to shore up their diminishing ranks.  That will increase pressure for the Brotherhood's government to embrace even more extreme and untenable positions, thus accelerate the flight of the educated elite putting Egypt's future at risk.  Western countries and the Gulf States have a strategic interest in ensuring the new Egyptian government does not fall into this economic abyss because of the instability that would ensue, the humanitarian crisis it would produce, and its political fallout.

This is why the idea of sending aid to Egypt makes sense.  It isn't about if they like us, but about if they survive as a somewhat Western oriented society, willing to keep the Camp David Accords.  If they are not willing, then peace in the Middle East, such as it is, will dissolve.  That would cost us a lot more—in money and lives.

The Administration is trying to bolster the current Egyptian Government, including financially, presumably aware of the problems ahead.  But, there is resistance on the Hill.

Regards  —  Cliff