Diplomatic Problems in the Future

For John, BLUF:  Diplomacy is going to be busy in the next few years.  Our choice of a new Secretary of State is, as usual, important.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

In a discussion of Ambassador Susan Rice's long record and its impact on her Confirmation chances, in another forum, we wandered over into what is happening in Asia.  Here is a short insightful comment on the problem of who own which islands and the ongoing tensions along the edge of China.

There is a fair amount of concern among Asian observers, and an increasing number of American ones, that the Chinese are not just pushing hard, but are seen as winning, or at least changing the terms on the ground.  Two major ongoing points of concern:

1. Scarborough Shoal.  The Chinese and Filipinos were in contention over who should own this particular sandspit, and it now appears the Chinese control it.  They pushed the Filipinos out, and much like they did with Mischief Reef back in the late 1980s, established a de facto permanent presence.  The Philippines had limited capacity to challenge, but it was exacerbated by the Administration apparently advising them to pull out, in the belief that if they did, then so would the Chinese.  (It is, after all, the heart of tit-for-tat negotiating, deescalation, and all the other standard lines of diplomacy, no?)

The Philippines left, the Chinese didn't.

2. Senkakus.  The Chinese have now maintained a substantial maritime presence (law enforcement-type ships only) for some 25 days.  With no end in sight.  The Japanese, by contrast, are wondering how long this will last.  The longer the Chinese are present, the more they can challenge Japan's "administrative control," and therefore the US commitment (which is based on "administrative control").

Here, we see that the Chinese are presenting the Japanese with an ugly dilemma.  Pull back/reduce presence, and therefore concede the islands?  Put forces ashore (probably police or coastguardsmen), in which case, you are seen as escalating?

What no one hears is where the CHINESE are in deescalating the situation.  No legal alternatives, no diplomatic alternatives.  No compromise.  We will stick it out until you give us what we want.

The next SecState will find this an ever thornier thicket, I suspect.

Just a thought...

Regards  —  Cliff