For John, BLUF: "US policy in the Middle East appears to be promoting an increased threat to Israel by uniting the new Islamist regimes against Israel under Iranian leadership. This is the one issue on which they can agree and this is a warning."
The 12/12/12 edition of Night Watch has an opinion piece by Analyst John McCreary regarding the long term prospects for peace for Israel. Israel's current security situation is good, but with the Arab Spring and Iran close to having a nuclear weapons capability the situation could well change. We could well ignore the impact of these developments, but to do so could leave the United States less well off in having to deal with future crises. That is to say, a small investment now could pay good dividends in the future.
NightWatch Special Comment: (This is a NightWatch editorial opinion.) The US is helping to destabilize the government of Syria, just as it did the government of Egypt.What adjustments do you think we should consider in our approach to Israel and the rest of the Near and Middle East?
US interests generally favor stable governments, whether elected or not. The Chinese take the same approach to North Korea. They judge that instability in Northeast Asia is contrary to China's national interests. It is bad for business, investment and development projects. Thus, even the Chinese would consider the current US policy as confusing because it promotes instability with no clear end state in mind.
In the Syrian case, the US is acting as a proxy for Saudi Arabia, which is determined to block the spread of Iranian influence in Arab countries.
The US has no high-minded moral interest in this fight, as if it were helping the downtrodden struggle against an authoritarian government. Were that the motivating factor, the US might have denounced Egyptian president Mursi's assumption of dictatorial powers on 22 November. Asad has no comparable powers. The US has said nothing about Mursi's personal coup d'etat.
The big winner from instability in Syria and Egypt will be Iran because its policy of hostility towards Israel is a magnet for all Arabs.
The Saudis lost the struggle to influence or control the direction of the Arab Spring states when Hamas survived eight days of Israeli air attacks, owing exclusively to Iranian, Egyptian and Sudanese help. Saudi Arabia, with all its $billions, was irrelevant.
The US and Saudis appear to be on the wrong side of history, because Iran already appears to have made contingency preparations for supporting an anti-Israel, fundamentalist, Sunni regime in Damascus, just as it did with the Mursi government in Egypt.
US policy in the Middle East appears to be promoting an increased threat to Israel by uniting the new Islamist regimes against Israel under Iranian leadership. This is the one issue on which they can agree and this is a warning.
Regards — Cliff