North African Blame Game

For John, BLUF:  The fall of Muammar Qaddafi was necessary for progress to be made in the Middle East and North Africa.  But, as local girl Bette Davis said, "Buckle up.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Ms Ann Marlowe,♠ writing in World Affairs Newsletter today, talks to "The North Africa Blame Game".

There’s a dangerous blame game being played now among the pundits, laying the responsibility for the conflict in northern Mali and the recent terror attack on the In Amenas gas field in Algeria on the overthrow of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi.

Not so, says Ms Marlowe:

The lesson of these rough times is not that the US was better served by the dictators of Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.  It’s that decades of dictatorship do not create stability, prosperity, or economic growth.  (The only exceptions may be China and Singapore.)  American support for the revolution in Libya was by and large wise and appropriate—stopping well short of boots on the ground, which the Libyans themselves did not want.  Expecting Libya to become a thriving democracy barely a year after the death of Qaddafi is unrealistic.  And blaming any terror attacks in North Africa on the Arab Spring is foolish and likely to lead to more bad policy choices.

That said, while the Arab Spring was necessary for Muslims and Arabs to move on, it doesn't mean that there will not be an Arab Autumn.  But, we have to go through this faze to get to the other side.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Ms Marlowe has written a monograph on the life of French soldier and thinker and author David Galula.  The market is a strange and wonderful place.  For the Kindle edition, 99¢, but it is free from the Army War College Strategic Studies Institute web site.  Hardcover has no Amazon price, but is listed new for $245.06, but used is $8.80.