For John, BLUF: It would be so nice if everyone played in his or her own sandbox, but it never happens. Nothing to see here; just move along.
The threat de jour is ISIL, the Islamic Caliphate, AKA ISIS. This article from Reporter Eli Lake of The Daily Beast talks to the current mood in Washington. The article suggests that President Obama is beginning to sound like President George W Bush after 9/11.
Since U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed the authenticity of a video that showed the beheading of American journalist James Foley this week, the president and top cabinet officers have employed rhetoric about the jihadists of the Islamic State (also known as the “caliphate,” ISIS, or ISIL) that echoes the Bush administration in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.The urge to do something is always strong, so the President may well decide that it is time to show ISIL who is boss. However, the thing to consider is that if we respond to ISIL with more than rhetoric, they may well look to escalate, to maintain escalation dominance (Here is Mr Adam Elkus talking about escalation dominance). There is no free lunch out there and we could soon find ourselves having to back down or having to put "boots on the ground".
One hopes it wouldn't come to that, that our airpower and our training and logistics support would allow local forces to reduce ISIL to another small group with terror capabilities, but there is no guarantee.
Regards — Cliff
1 comment:
Looking at the terrain that ISIS is trying to maintain and expand upon, it seems they are at a logistical disadvantage. The area has sustained continued damage over the years with food and water in short supply. Rather than targeting the strongholds I would advise trying to separate the logistic lines between the cities using USAF assets. In my view ISIS is very similar to the Spanish Inquisition in the thirteenth century--minus the trials. The individual players are held together by fear and greed or power lust. If we were to separate this group by attacking their supply lines I imagine they will start fighting among themselves as self-survival rears its "ugly" head. ISIS may have the weapons and perhaps the people to launch offensive attacks but what they lack the most are the daily food and water in conjunction with maintaining adequate sanitation. The area's environment is not very welcoming. ISIS has, I believe, become the people's heroes because they have been distributing foods to the people. It may seem inhumane but the only way I can envision we can defeat them at this point is to cause them to implode and fight among themselves. Let us put the tribal structure of this group to good use. As each city is isolated new "commanders" will have to emerge and they may face contenders within their ranks. This is just one opinion which may have little value excepting that it may offer another view which has not yet been perceived.
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