For John, BLUF: Nothing in the future is guaranteed. Nothing to see here; just move along.
The Washington Post has an article on Republican fissures. The title is "Some evangelicals in Republican Party are feeling left out, see no standard-bearer".
Maybe these two paragraphs say it best:
The disconnect between social conservatives and the GOP has become a “chasm,” said Gary Bauer, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000 and is now head of the Campaign for Working Families. He pointed to the party’s two most recent presidential nominees, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, as examples of candidates who were touted initially as having broad appeal to centrists in the general election but ultimately never inspired evangelicals and lost.That is my link embedded in the quote.
“Values voters have been treated as the stepchildren of the family, while the party has wanted to get on with so-called more electorally popular ideas,” Bauer said. “The Republican base will not tolerate another candidate foisted upon us as a guy who can win.”
I would suggest that part of the reason Senator Scott Brown lost his second election was because those socially conservative voters stayed home the second time, while the Democrats turned out over 600,000 additional voters.
Senator Brown picked up less than half as much. Not a good sign. And the big uptick in "Blank" ballots, re Senator, is, to me, a telling sign.
So, is it Dr Ben Carson for the Republicans? I hear from folks who say yes.
I think the deeper issue is whether or not the Republican Party can survive half social conservative and half libertarian. And, if the Republican Party crashes, what will it do to Democrats? Will they stay united, following the Reid/Pelosi line, or will there be fracturing?
Regards — Cliff