Thursday, July 7, 2016

Presidential Election Gender Gap


For John, BLUFIn other news, "The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Donald Trump with 42% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton earns 40%."  Nothing to see here; just move along.



From Rasmussen Reports we have a commentary by Mr Geoffrey Skelley.  It is from today, 7 July.

Here is the subheadline:

2016 could see the largest political divide between men and women in the exit poll era
And an extract from the lede:
With four months to go in the 2016 general election campaign, national polls suggest that it’s quite possible that the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump clash may well set a new record for partisan differences between the sexes.  Since Clinton effectively sewed up the Democratic nomination on June 7, the average gender gap in 22 national polls is 24.4 points and the median gap is 26 points, slightly ahead of the exit poll era record set in 2000…
YearGender Gap
201624
201218
200812
200414
200022
199617
19925
198815
198413
198017
19760
19722

I am not sure I see a dramatic difference for this year from previous years.  For instance, in 2000 there was a big gap, which I assume was due to the charm and good looks of Candidate Al Gore.

Here is the analysis paragraph.

The gender gap has long been an electoral reality in American politics, whether in presidential races or down-ballot.  In most elections, men tend to vote more Republican and women tend to vote more Democratic.  Based on the national exit polls, there has been a notable divide in how men and women vote in every presidential election going back to 1980, when Ronald Reagan helped convert a significant segment of men, but not women, to the Republican Party.  In fact, outside of 1992, every contest since 1980 has featured a gap of at least 10 percentage points.  The all-time record in the exit poll era (1972-present) is 22 points, observed in the 2000 election cycle, when Al Gore won women by 11 points and George W. Bush won men by 11 points.
Regards  —  Cliff

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