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Saturday, January 29, 2011

"Mabarak No Dictator"

Over at The Other McCain is a repeat of an interesting question, "‘Whose Bright Idea Was It to Send Joe Biden Out to Talk About Egypt?’".  As you recall, Vice President Biden responded to a Reporter with an extended comment that included this item:
I would not refer to him as a dictator.
Ooooh Kay.  So, in what way would we describe Mr Hosni Mubarak?

Over at Night Watch the analyst is saying that this unrest in Egypt is being sanctioned by elements of the Army, as a way of ensuring we don't have a North Korean like family succession, with son Gamal Mubarak succeeding his 82 year old father.

The real problem is if certain factions come to power and those factions decide that what the People really want and need is the elimination of Israel.  That would be a problem.

The paths this situation can take are like branches of a tree.  One branch could be an immediate departure of President Mubarak.  Another could be his departure in six months, sort of like President de Gaulle after May of 1968.  A third could be President Mubarak as a figurehead for the next few years, with someone else manipulating the levers.

Then there is the next branch.  Will it be government reform?  Will it be confrontation with Israel?  Will it be a move toward true democracy?  Will it be a return to Sharia after all these decades of a secular society?

Then there are the questions about the impact of the broader events on the south side of the Mediterranean on populations on the north side.  How will North Africans in Spain, France and Italy react to the events in their homelands?

It is an interesting set of possibilities out there.

Hat tip to the Instapundit

Regards  —  Cliff


Anonymous said...

The birthplace of civilization, the graveyard of empires. And that descriptor expands to include Egypt. Alexander tried to mess with those folks...and look what it got him.

One thing is certain, radical Islam is behind the current strife and it is not so much a matter of Hosni and his kid, rather, it is about power and control...expanding it.

Egypt has messed with Israel before, and it got them stung badly. My guess is that Jerusalem is already cocked and blocked. The only issue left is do they fly west...or east. I am not at all certain that they care. Either way will be fine and they will fight to the last Jew standing.

Islamic radicals are doing their level best to inflame the ME and ignite an all out conflict with winner take all stakes.

The Suez and ME oil issues aside, the most prudent thing the US could do at this point is to pull out....and well back......or we will be right in the middle of one of the biggest angry hornet's nest in centuries.

And, BTW, nobody in the ME could care on whit about American exceptionalism.

Craig H said...

Neal, I wouldn't be so quick to presume "radical Islam" as the bogeyman behind every little geopolitical dustup in the EMEA world these days. Some journalists have uncovered curious coincidences that smack of American meddling as well:

And, Cliff, as for Joe B: He can often out-Cheney Cheney in terms of duplicitous Machiavellianism. (Here's something I found recently, avowing his personal bias towards Zionism, and, yeah, the pedantic tone of his comments makes my skin crawl: )