Taiwan and the Future

The Obama Administration is wrestling with the issue of arms sales to Taiwan.

Here is a CBS analysis of the situation, with some good information.

Beyond the arms sale issue is the question of US long term support for the independence of Taiwan, which [Mainline] China claims as one of its own provinces.  For instance Professor Charles Glaser, a theorist in the area of International Relations, thinks we should abandon Taiwan rather than let the island become a problem between us and China.  From an article in Foreign Policy we have this item:

To Glaser, Taiwan is different. China's belief that Taiwan is part of it is non-negotiable, and Beijing and Washington have very different views of what constitutes the status quo across the Strait. The Taiwan dispute has no diplomatic solution and the risks of nuclear war are getting too high, particularly with China's advancing second strike capability. His answer is for the United States to make the necessary "adjustments" and abandon Taiwan.

The problem is, what will Japan and South Korea think?  Will they accept that it is just the US making a small adjustment with a China that is not expansionist or will they see it as the US accommodating a China which wishes to to reassert its former domination of the area surrounding the "Middle Kingdom".

I think that Taiwan would only whet the appetite of China.  Just like the conquest of Austria or the Sudeten German portion of Czechoslovakia only encouraged the desire of Germany for expansion.  Even now China asserts its desire for the South China sea and to assert that it should be the patron of the Philippines.

We abandon Taiwan at the risk of a Japan that acquires nuclear weapons.

Regards  —  Cliff