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Monday, February 25, 2013

Whither China


For John, BLUFWhere is China heading, on the international scene?

From the Moscow Times we have a piece by Mr Richard Lourie, titled "China's Secret Foreign Policy".  Dated 24 February 2013, it talks to a comment by Jack Mitchell on a previous blog post:

As far as I know, the Brazilians are tight with the Japanese. Sao Paulo has the largest concentration of Japanese living outside of Japan.

Even so, the Chinese are a fine people. We have nothing to fear. Unless, American global hegemony is something to covet?

2/24/2013 09:42:00 PM

The question we face, as we execute our foreign policy "Pivot to the East", is what does China have in mind and what is it capable of doing.  Mr Lourie talks to that.  Here is the lede:
Everyone is afraid of China. One reason is an instinctive reflex to avoid anything enormous moving at great speed. But even more important is that China's true intent can't be gauged.  Is China a threat to the world order, or at least to its region? Is it a rival to the U.S. or an enemy?  Should it be balanced or contained? Or should China be envied and admired for its achievements in accruing wealth and power?
Here is Writer Richard Lourie's concluding paragraphs:
The recent revelations about the Chinese government-backed hacking of U.S. business and institutions are about more than saving money on research and development.  They are part of a three-pronged foreign policy strategy in which China will combine cyberespionage with economic pressure to bring the West under its sway while projecting traditional military might in its own region.  The third prong is nuclear.  Currently, China is in the same league as England and France but is pushing ahead with intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-based missiles.  You can't be a superpower without them.

China is also investing heavily in its navy, which is the only way to protect the flow of energy and raw materials into China, and the export of finished goods.  Besides protecting its economic lifeline, naval power allows China to deny or delay U.S. access to the South China Sea and East China Sea in the event of a crisis over Taiwan.  Beefed up naval power will also help in negotiations over the various disputed islands.

For all the money Beijing is pouring into modernizing its armed forces, it still spends more on domestic security than on defense.  According to official figures, since 2010 the budget for the police, the state security forces, the courts and prisons has exceeded the money spent on the military.  Even China is afraid of China.

UPDATE:  Added a link for the Asia Pivot of the current Administration.

Regards  —  Cliff

4 comments:

Neal said...

A country with a population approaching 1.5B people, that claims its national pastime is ping pong will lie about other things too.

Our approach to China is one borne of a position of "check" and perhaps even "checkmate." We are currently engaged in a failed policy of appeasement with China. Their arrogance is unprecedented and motivated by the reality that there is not a nation on earth who can take them on militarily and win. Eventually, we would have to engage them in a land war and that is one in which we simply are no match for. Nuclear options are not really viable for us, even though the nervousness of our Rim friends may well lead them one day to a preemptive if not mutual nuclear exchange.

The FACT remains, we will not be able to sleep next to the dragon. It is bound to consider us as a necessary meal. Not if. When.

I would venture that today's GREATEST threat to the planet is not the tribal warfare engulfing the Middle and Near East. It is the systemic need for China to expand to live.

Jack Mitchell said...

I'm not afraid of China. They have more people. We have the ideals of our Founders.

We don't need to compel 'Democracy.' It comes to us.

Chill.

Jack Mitchell said...

The Rebalance to Asia: Why South Asia Matters (Part 1)
Testimony
Joseph Yun
Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs

Statement Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific
Washington, DC
February 26, 2013

C R Krieger said...

I am very glad to see the emphasis on our relationship with India, which will be key to our future actions in that neighborhood.  Notwithstanding the discussion of Container Traffic through the Indian Ocean, I am thinking the conclusion of the widening of the Panama Canal will change that flow, as it will change the flow of traffic across the United States.

Missing, and probably appropriately so, given the emphasis, was any discussion of who owns which islands and what is and what is not territorial waters.

Regards  —  Cliff