Monday, April 4, 2016

Our Future Options vis-a-via Daesh


For John, BLUFThere are no cheap or quick solutions.  Nothing to see here; just move along.



Former US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, Mr James F Jeffrey, talks about "The Next President's Choices on ISIS".

This isn't the large strategic vision we need, but it is a start.  It looks at where we could be going, but it lacks the well rounded strategic vision that is needed.

And, I am not sure I understand the Ambassador’s last sentence:

If the U.S. does rapidly start taking down ISIS, a ‘victory’ against ISIS by Russia and its allies could be as threatening as ISIS now is.
Ambassador Jeffrey suggests three options:
  1. Continue the current Administration’s program against ISIS.  Current Strategy updated in March.
  2. “Obama Plus.”  Under this scenario, the U.S. maintains its ban on American ground troops, but greatly increases its air and advisory support effort to local forces, similar to what Putin has recently done with the Syrian army (minus the high civilian casualties).
  3. Limited contingents of U.S. combat troops, probably two brigades each of 3-4,000 combat personnel, reinforced with other NATO countries’ elite forces, to spearhead drives that would still rely heavily on local forces for subsidiary operations.
And, while force commitments are, to a certain degree, strategic decisions, I am not sure this three part breakdown is helpful.  We need a broader plan.  A plan that says who we will screw over to achieve our overall goals.  No point keeping it a secret, since it will quickly become obvious.  And, I would start with squeezing Europe to include Turkey as part of Europe, even if the EU is on the verge of going back to being a Coal and Steel Community.  But, that incorporation of Turkey in Europe has impacts on the Kurds, I would think.  And the other ethnic minorities in the area.  And what about the US being willing to step up and do targeted acceptance of refugees as immigrants.

This is a rubrics cube, not a checker board.

And, of course there is the whole issue of Islam and the end times and if we (they) we move through this Apocalyptic time and into the Islamic version of Modernity.  Such a move is hard for any group, but even the Roman Catholic Church managed it.

In my humble opinion.

Regards  —  Cliff

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