To Intervene In Libya (or Elsewhere)?

Or, we could title this, “Don’t just do something, stand there”.

The Washington Times has an article this morning by Reporter Rowan Scarborough, with the title “Retired brass oppose Libya action:  “Pentagon rushes to draw up options for president’s review”.

Retired Air Force Gen. Charles Horner, who ran the 1991 Operation Desert Storm air war, said he would advise the president against everything except some type of humanitarian relief.  The U.S. does not know the rebels or their ultimate objectives, he said.  "I don't think you want to get involved in a civil war in Libya," Gen. Horner said.  "The no-fly zone, all you're doing is taking away the Libyan air force's ability to attack insurgents from the air.  When you don't know what's going on, you don't stick your nose in it.  I wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole."

He said the military could have sent cargo jets from Europe instead of a ferry to evacuate Americans.

"The danger is the administration has been accused of screwing everything up with wishy-washy, and probably what they're doing is desperately flailing trying to appear to be decisive," said the retired four-star general.

James Carafano, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation and a retired Army officer, said the administration should remember the lessons of Somalia, where a humanitarian mission in 1993 ballooned into a futile military battle to subdue tribal rebels and resulted in an embarrassing U.S. withdrawal.

The fear is, he said, "this administration will do something not because it necessarily makes sense in a credible, feasible, suitable standpoint, but because the pressure is so intense that they do something for the sake of doing something, which is a huge mistake."  "I'm not yet convinced that a no-fly zone makes sense," Mr. Carafano said.  "They look at this no-fly zone as some sort of easy button, but are you encouraging people who are going to be as bad as Gadhafi to rise up?

In another forum there was this comment about doing a No-Fly Zone over Libya, after noting that Air Base in Egypt are likely unavailable:

Coming out of Sigonella, Sicily, would be a haul for TacAir and we would need three carriers to comfortably maintain 24-7 although I'm betting the Lybia's air force isn't much into night operations, so we may be able to get by with one carrier for a while (gonna need a maintenance day every now and then though).

There are some points for consideration when looking at an intervention.  Here are three quick questions for consideration (the source is a CRS Report from the early 1990s, prepared by Retired Army Colonel John Collins.  Colonel Collins was Director of Military Strategy Studies, National War College, 1969-71 and Chief Strategic Research Group, 1971-72.  In addition he is a Strategist):

§ Which U.S. and allied interests are pertinent?  Are they compatible?

§ Which of them are worth the expenditure of precious lives and treasure?

§ Which of them should take top priority?

These are not complicated questions but there can be differences of opinion on the answers. : The Second Item is particularly important in that these are friends, neighbors and the children of friends and neighbors we are talking about in terms of lives.  As for treasure, we are already engaged in spilling treasure in Iraq and Afghanistan.

From the same source as the questions about national interests we have this final comment:

Military intervention, no matter how innocuously it begins, may escalate unexpectedly, perhaps in unanticipated ways.  Original rationales may be overtaken by unforeseen events.  The President and his politico-military assistants (especially Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, the JCS Chairman, and combatant commanders) therefore would be well advised to scrutinize pertinent factors repeatedly before and after armed combat begins to guarantee that U.S. servicemen and women lay their lives on the line for legitimate reasons.

If I were asked for my opinion by our Congresswoman, either of our Senators or the Executive Branch, which I won’t be, I would recommend we set up to provide humanitarian relief.

Regards  —  Cliff

PS:  From Washington Post Staff Writer Scott Wilson we have a good assessment on the Administration's look at the future in the Maghreb and Near East.