The Libyan war has now begun. It pits a coalition of European powers plus the United States, a handful of Arab states and rebels in Libya against the Libyan government. The long-term goal, unspoken but well understood, is regime change ?~@~T displacing the government of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and replacing it with a new regime built around the rebels.OK, so the question is, "how does this end"?
There are the major branches from this point. My stab at them include:
- Colonel Qaddafi is killed
- Colonel Qaddafi flees to the interior
- Colonel Qaddafi flees to a foreign nation
- Colonel Qaddafi is captured
- The current government collapses and is replaced by a relatively stable government
- The current government collapses and chaos rules
- The current government hangs on and begins to (1) kill all seen as part of the rebellion or (2) conduct terrorist operations in coalition nations or (3) a combination of the above
- The current government collapses, but regroups in the interior and conducts (1) a guerrilla war against the new government or (2) terrorist operations within coalition nations or (3) a combination of the above
OK, that gets us days to weeks into this. Then what?
Regards — Cliff