Now what?

Over at a blog I have never heard of is a copy of an opinion piece by George Friedman, from StratFor, titled "The Libyan War of 2011".  Here is the lede:

The Libyan war has now begun. It pits a coalition of European powers plus the United States, a handful of Arab states and rebels in Libya against the Libyan government. The long-term goal, unspoken but well understood, is regime change ?~@~T displacing the government of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and replacing it with a new regime built around the rebels.

OK, so the question is, "how does this end"?

There are the major branches from this point.  My stab at them include:

1. Colonel Qaddafi is killed
2. Colonel Qaddafi flees to the interior
3. Colonel Qaddafi flees to a foreign nation
4. Colonel Qaddafi is captured

Now, with that in mind, what happens after that?

1. The current government collapses and is replaced by a relatively stable government
2. The current government collapses and chaos rules
3. The current government hangs on and begins to (1) kill all seen as part of the rebellion or (2) conduct terrorist operations in coalition nations or (3) a combination of the above
4. The current government collapses, but regroups in the interior and conducts (1) a guerrilla war against the new government or (2) terrorist operations within coalition nations or (3) a combination of the above

If there is a breakdown in order or the current government hangs on then we (I) accept the outcome or (II) the Arab coalition partners intervene or (III) the European nations intervene or (IV) a combination of the two intervene.  Note that I do not include (V) US intervention, but if you like that solution, throw that into the mix.

OK, that gets us days to weeks into this.  Then what?

Regards  —  Cliff