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Thursday, September 20, 2012

Sen Brown May Be Ahead

For John, BLUF:  UMass Lowell poll says Brown pulling ahead.  Nothing to see; just move along.

Over at Instapundit is a reference to our very own UMass Lowell

MASSACHUSETTS NEWS: UMass/Herald poll:  Brown pulling ahead of Warren.  “There also is some troubling news for the well-financed Warren campaign.  Despite spending millions of dollars to tarnish Brown’s image, the GOP incumbent’s popularity has actually increased in the last nine months.  Brown is now viewed favorably by 57 percent of registered voters, up nine points from a UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll conducted in Dec. 2011.  Brown’s unfavorable rating actually has dropped six points to 29 percent.  He is also drawing 22 percent of voters who say they will vote for President Obama.”
I have an extra Brown sign, if anyone wants it.

Regards  —  Cliff

1 comment:

Jack Mitchell said...

From a Dem blog:
The Herald fudged the numbers, why?

It looks like the Herald changed how they conducted their poll to undersample Democrats. The Herald conducted a poll in December 2011 the poll sampled 33% Democrats (which could still be argued as undersampling), from 33% they went down to 28%. A good question to ask the pollster. Why did you change your sampling parameters to lower the amount of Democrats?

Sept. 13-17, 2012

RVs by party – Unleaned: D 28% of RVs, I 56%, R 12%
Leaned: D 55% of RVs, I 8%, R 36%
LVs by party – Unleaned: D 28% of LVs, I 56%, R 11%
Leaned: D 56% of LVs, I 7%, R 36%

Dec. 1-6, 2011

Party breaks – Unleaned: D 33% of sample, I 50%, R 12%
Leaned: D 56% of sample, I 11%, R 32%

johnk @ Thu 20 Sep 8:56 AM
I'm not writing off Scott Brown. That would be folly. Of course, I am convinced he is a product of his image consultants and that Bay Staters will see through the facade, as Dem operatives strip it away over the next 46 days.

The debates will loom large, as Brown has a weakness in those that support him. Poor debate performance could swing those voters from Brown to Warren.

The biggest factor, imho, will be voter turnout. If the Warren campaign can beat the bushes and pound the ground, then Warren will win based on volume. Financial data shows us that Brown is investing in advertising. He is, afterall, a "made for TV candidate." Warren is paying for staff.

We can joke about Warren being a "job creator," but "The Warren campaign has a stunning 77 people on the payroll, compared to 20 on the slim Brown campaign."

It will be close, but Brown is betting that Warren's campaign will mobilize enough "Rita Mercier Democrats" for him.

I'm liking Warren's odds.