For John, BLUF: The Syrian Government of President Assad seems to be in trouble, but he is the protector of the minorities. After him, what?
Analyst John McCreary, at Night Watch says the following about Syria, where, in his opinion, the war has "crossed an important strategic threshold"—this is the ability of the Insurgents to shoot down aircraft. There are consequences here:
As noted above, policy choices have consequences. Should the Alawite government fall, Syrian Christians, Jews, Zoroastrians and other minorities will be killed and shrines destroyed. That is why the Syrian Kurds are opposing the Syrian opposition fighters and jihadists.Those looking down the road and not just calling for giving support to the Syrian Rebels need to ask themselves if, under Responsibility to Protect (R2P), the United States or other nations will feel compelled to intervene if a Salafi jihadist team takes over Syria and starts going after minorities? The follow-on question is if we should bring the oppressed minorities to the United States to reestablish their lives?
Of course it might never come to that, but it is one of the possible futures for which we should be planning.
Regards — Cliff